E(Rit) − Rft= βi[E(Rmt− Rft] + siE(SMBt) + hiE(HMIt)
其中Rft表示时间t的无风险收益率;Rmt表示时间t的市场收益率;Rit表示资产i在时间t的收益率;E(Rmt) − Rft是市场风险溢价,SMBt为时间t的市值(Size)因子的模拟组合收益率(Small minus Big),HMIt为时间t的账面市值比(book—to—market)因子的模拟组合收益率(High minus Low)。
β、si和hi分别是三个因子的系数,回归模型表示如下:
Rit− Rft= ai+ βi(Rmt− Rft) + SiSMBt+ hiHMIt+ εit
但是,我们应该看到,三因子模型并不代表资本定价模型的完结,在最近的研究发现,三因子模型中还有很多未被解释的部分,如短期反转、中期动量、波动、偏度、赌博等因素。
建立m函数文件存为logistic1function f=logistic1(b)
t=[0,5,10,24,33,48,57,72,96,120,144,168,192,216]y=[0,0.028,0.103,0.336,0.450,0.597,0.716,0.778,0.835,0.849,0.816,0.839,0.811,0.816]
f = y-b(1)./(1+b(2).*exp(-b(3).*t))
b0=[10,2,2]
>>b=leastsq('logistic1',b0)
b =
0.8221 13.9173 0.0818
或者cftool
General model:
f(x) = b/(1+a*exp(-k*x))
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
a = 13.92 (6.301,21.53)
b = 0.822 (0.7911,0.853)
k = 0.08184 (0.06479,0.0989)
Goodness of fit:
SSE:0.01404
R-square:0.9898
Adjusted R-square:0.9879
RMSE:0.03572